Violent Disruptions and Forced Migration

This Cluster focuses on Violent Disruptions, Forced Migration and their connections. Violent disruption encompasses natural (often man-made) disasters as well as events of collective violence like wars, civil wars, genocides, or pogroms. Forced migration is regularly a consequence of such events. Precisely, the causes, prevention, monitoring and mitigation of violent disruptions and forced migration are central in the cluster’s research projects, lectures, publications and events as is the critical analysis of the legal framework regulating the aforementioned matters. Our work focuses on the following four areas:

The long list of global crises, including COVID-19, forced displacement and violent conflict, climate change and nature loss, confronts humanitarians with the challenge to manage multiple risks simultaneously. By adopting anticipatory approaches to humanitarian action, actors within the humanitarian community are increasingly seeking to assess these risks and predict their impact on communities in order to provide the necessary support even before adverse effects of these crises materialize. This, however, requires a solid understanding of the exposure and vulnerability of communities to different types of risks and the possible early actions for mitigation and improving all levels of protection of the population exposed to hazards. To enhance this understanding, within this cluster theme we seek to contribute to recent research and discussions on predicting and anticipating the impact of certain shocks and disasters, including violent disruptions. Our research focuses on the one hand on the development of forecasting and risk assessment tools based on quantitative methods and on machine learning. On the other hand, based on qualitative research, we focus in more depth on selected research problems related to risk and vulnerability, e.g. social protection, innovation and digitalization, or infrastructure. We also take a critical stance towards important concepts in the field of anticipatory humanitarian action such as risk, vulnerability and resilience and reflect on them from the perspective of discourse theory and post-colonial studies. With the World Risk Report the IFHV already provides an innovative tool that analyzes the links between natural events, climate change, development and preparedness at a global level to draw future-oriented conclusions regarding relief measures, policies and reporting. It contains the World Risk Index that states the risk of disaster in consequence of extreme natural events for 181 of the world’s countries.

For a long time, the term ‘refugee’ was mainly considered in the perspective of the 1951 Refugee Convention and its protocol. Therefore, the rights of individuals who are granted asylum and protected in connection with threats of persecution in other countries. However, the changing nature of conflict and the emerging of new disasters have presented unprecedented challenges, which continuously expose vulnerable groups in society to different risks other than persecution. The current landscape of conflict and natural crises have demonstrated that the expansion of the refugee definition is not the one key to enhance protection (for example Climate Refugee). Instead, it stems from Human Rights Law and the will of policy makers to implement sensible long-term migration policies. In this Research Theme, we look into how  the protection of individuals (children, women, refugees, IDPs and indigenous groups) in situations of crisis can be strengthened and into which factors should be considered in the analysis of legal and policy frameworks to ensure protection of at-risks groups.

New Technologies have always played a central role in how warfare and conflict are conducted, how these evolve and change, and how they impact society, culture and politics. However, the advent of digital technologies and new media applications carries the most profound effects and challenges since the emergence of the modern, industrialized and technologized warfare with World War I. Today, digital technologies and new media applications do not only affect the conduct of war and conflict with a recognizable shift from on-the-ground to online battles, but also how national and international communities deal with the immediate aftermath and long-term after-effects of war and conflict – including the legal, social and political accounting for the past in criminal and transitional justice. Different technological tools such as mobile applications, global positioning systems (GPS) as well as tele-communications via smartphones and the Internet are no longer merely used by perpetrators or armed groups to induce violence; they have become tools for civilians and survivors to attain empowerment, collect evidence and seek protection. For instance, in violent settings, users utilized Witness apps that helped human rights defenders to document incidents by photographs and videos. Also, live broadcasting through different apps allows streaming from mobile phones to various social media channels. These powerful technologies enable fast and secure data collection that can support criminal investigations and eventually enter legal proceedings. This research area deals with the legal, social, cultural and political implications of the emergence of new technologies in armed conflicts from different disciplinary perspectives. How does technology contribute to mitigate risks of civilians and ensure their protection? How it can be used to facilitate access to remote areas to collect and evaluate information, and present user-generated evidence and evidence-based reporting?

While organized violence was discussed primarily in connection with collective violence like wars and pogroms, the term is increasingly being addressed beyond these boundaries. Organized violence can be exercised or supported by legitimate and illegitimate groups; it can be organized by States, political, criminal groups or even by paramilitary groups as non-state actors and militias. Shifting world politics, the rise of new technologies and emerging global challenges including the climate crises, pandemics and protracted conflicts and civil wars have brought about new practices and forms of organized violence. The Islamic State (IS) in the MENA region with its sophisticated media strategy to spread its ideology, attract supporters, recruit fighters and followers, and threaten its opponents is only example in this regard. Another example is the criminal-economic-military-political gang MS-13 in Central America that instrumentalizes violence to protect their vital interests and broaden their economic and political territories. In this sub-cluster we examine new trends in the driving forces, motivations and practices of organized violence and its impact on societies. We ask, how do refugees, asylum-seekers or IDPs experience and perceive organized violence in their life trajectories? How do organized violent groups retain their resilience and transnational criminal activities despite States’ measures and policies to combat it in a changing global environment?